Wanliyang (002434) 2019 third quarterly report comment: Q3 deducted non-net profit two-year average growth Q2 three major product lines will be fully upward
Event: The company released the third quarter report for 2019, and the company achieved revenue of 32 in the first three quarters.
USD 9.1 billion, an annual increase of 1.
95%; net profit attributable to mother 3.
4.8 billion, a decrease of 5 per year.
36%; net profit after deduction is returned 2.
2.6 billion, a decrease of 26 every year.
Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 12.
07 billion, an annual increase of 13.
19%; net profit attributable to mothers1.
160,000 yuan, an annual increase of 30.
79%; net profit after 厦门夜网 deduction is 0.
9.5 billion, an annual increase of 51.
We have the following comments: Revenue: 18Q3-19Q2 revenues have been negative for four consecutive quarters, and 19Q3 revenues have achieved positive growth consecutively, mainly due to the rapid volume of CVT in 2019Q3 and sales of about 70,000 units (18 years)(Preliminary Wanliyang CVT telescopic volume is only about 100,000 units).
18Q3-19Q2 The company’s revenue growth continued to grow at -1.
22%, Q3 revenue growth rate reached 13 in ten years.
19%, gradually changing trend, gradually the company’s new products CVT25 and CVT18 began to support Geely Emgrand GS / GL, Vision X3 / X6 / S1 national six models in May 19, this part of the new revenue and the company’s Q3 revenue realizedremarkable growth.
Profit side: Q3 deducted non-net profit exceeded the average growth of the chain, thanks to the Q3 2019 expense ratio decreased compared to the same period last year.
In Q3, the profit attributable to mothers increased by 30 per year.
79%, net profit after deducting non-attribution to mothers increased by 51.
17%, the growth rate is significantly greater than the growth rate of revenue, mainly because the company’s management expense rate -0 per second.
9pct, R & D expense rate is -1pct per year, and financial expenses are -0 for half a year.
5pct, in the case of the gross profit margin is basically flat, the decline in the expense ratio drives the net profit margin +1.
1pct, the profit side has grown significantly.
The decline in the company’s expense ratio reflects the company’s excellent cost management and control capabilities.
Why does the gross profit margin of Q3 2019 significantly increase QoQ?
The company’s gross profit margins for the 19Q1 / 19Q2 / 19Q3 were 27.
67% / 24.
45% / 19.
62%, 19Q3 gross profit margin growth rate of 4.
The following three points are preliminary: ① The new production line of CVT is in a climbing phase, the proficiency of workers needs to be improved, the production line needs to be continuously debugged, and the product defect rate has improved.
② The scale effect of the original purchase side cannot be achieved. The purchase price for next year will be determined at the end of this year and it is expected to decrease due to the significant increase in the purchase scale.The impact of the company’s gross profit margin.
Despite the decline in gross profit margin, the company reduced the magnitude of its net profit margin by controlling the expense side, with Q2 / Q3 net profit margins of 10 respectively.
31% / 9.
95pct, which is better than the month-on-month decline in gross profit margin, because the company’s period expense ratio was -6.
19pct, in which the management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) is -3.
Why does the operating cash flow of Q3 2019 expand?
19Q1 / 19Q2 / 19Q3 net operating cash flows were 4, respectively.
5.2 billion yuan, 18Q3 net operating cash flow was 1.
The net operating cash flow of 19Q3 exceeded US $ 6.9 billion, and the average value of the chain shifted.
Initially, a large number of CVT products supporting Geely in 19Q3 are still on the books, and most of them will be concentrated in 19Q4 settlement, affecting the company’s cash withdrawal (Geely’s account period is about 60 days, Chery’s account period is about 30 days);In 19H1, discounted bills were used to obtain cash, which resulted in better net operating cash flow performance in 19H1. In 19Q3, no bill discounted, so net cash flow from operations decreased month-on-month.
It is expected that the company’s performance in 19Q4 will have a better performance.
The company’s three major product lines will be in an offensive up to 19Q4, and CVT products will be further ramped up in the fourth quarter; manual production of 6MT passenger cars will begin mass production in September, and Q4 volume and price will rise; business continues to continue to be high-end, and product supplyTo seek.
① Passenger car automatic transmission: The company’s CVT transmission has sold 100,000 units in 18 years, estimated to be 240,000 to 240,000 units in 19Q, and expected to exceed 100,000 units in 19Q4; ② Manual transmission of passenger cars: The company’s manual transmission of passenger cars is experiencing 5MTThe upgrade to 6MT began to support Great Wall in August. In Geely, Chery’s supporting models also increased. The average price of 6MT was 400-500 yuan more than 5MT, and the proportion of 6MT in 19Q4 will increase significantly.
③ Commercial vehicle speed change: The company’s high-end G series has benefited from the country ‘s five-liter, six-country, and six-overload limit overload, and its proportion has continued to increase. The average price of high-end G series shifts is more than 20% higher than traditional products. At present, demand exceeds supply.
Investment suggestion: Considering the lower CVT, fuel economy can effectively alleviate the pressure of OEMs to reduce costs and fuel consumption, and the penetration rate in China’s own brands will increase rapidly. The new generation of CVT of Wanliyang is very cost-effective, and its internal potential tolerance is large.Bunge has problems again. The company’s products are bundled with Geely, and will be rapidly increased in the second half of 19 years.
Wanliyang’s previous two years of CVT continued to spend, and its performance continued to exceed expectations, but now it has entered the Geely system and has been endorsed by mainstream car companies. It will soon enter the harvest period from the expenditure period.
In the future, if it enters the Great Wall, Changan, FAW-Volkswagen (Jetta) and other systems, the growth space will be further enhanced.
We expect the company’s total revenue to continue to be 52 in 19-21.
7.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 19.
2%; net profit attributable to mother in turn is 4.
7.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 33.
4%, the current market value is 109.
600 million yuan, corresponding to PE in turn is 20.
Maintain the “Recommended” level.
Risk Warning: New customer development is less than expected; new product is less than expected; car sales are less than expected