Midea Group (000333): Beyond Expectations of Competitiveness behind Steady Business Indicators

Midea Group (000333): Beyond Expectations of Competitiveness behind Steady Business Indicators
The 3Q19 results exceeded our expectations of the company’s 3Q19 results: revenue 671.500 million, an increase of 6 in ten years.4%; net profit attributable to mother 61.30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 23.5%.Corresponds to 2209 from 1Q-3Q19.20,000 yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.4%; net profit attributable to mother 213.2 ‰, an increase of 19 in ten years.1%.The gross profit margin is still improving for ten years, and the performance is slightly higher than our expectations.  Where is the business beyond expectations: 1) Although the margin of profit exceeding expectations is uncertain, the company’s financial indicators are healthy, reflecting the company’s 杭州桑拿 excellent competitiveness in the context of poor overall industry demand.2) In the third quarter of 19, the air-conditioning market segmentation significantly reduced prices.But the market has turned into a price war.Midea adopted the “T + 3” policy, channel integration, and promotion of windless air-conditioning to reduce the average retail price while maintaining a stable profit margin for the air-conditioning business.3) Washing machines and refrigerators benefit from the duopoly exclusive with Haier, and the integration effect of Toshiba after Little Swan’s proprietaryization; large kitchen appliances benefit from the conversion after channel destocking; the market for small kitchen appliances is better, andRevenue growth also increased slightly.  Financial analysis: 1) 19Q3 revenue / operating profit for two years +6.4% / + 12.9%, the growth rate is basically the same as in the first 杭州桑拿 half, and the operation is stable.2) The privatization of Little Swan is completed, and the profit and loss of minority shareholders is reduced. We estimate that the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers will be increased by about 5 ppt in 3Q19.3) 3Q19 gross profit margin 28.2%, a year to raise 0.7ppt.Mainly benefited from the improvement in gross profit margin driven by the improvement in the sales structure of consumer electronics, and the decrease in exchange rate on export gross margin improved.4) Cash flow was stable. Operating net cash flow growth from 1Q to 3Q19 increased 52% to 297.900 million.5) Although KUKA’s revenue decreased slightly, the net profit margin was restored to 3 in 19Q3 through cost reduction.2%.  Development trend The company continues to expand its leading edge by virtue of the competitive advantages of the entire industry chain, product leadership and efficiency-driven, global business strategies. The market share of air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and kitchen appliances continues to expand.  Earnings Forecasts and Estimates Due to better-than-expected results, we raised our 2019 / 20e EPS forecast1.5% / 1.6% to 3.48 yuan / 4.01 yuan.Maintain Outperform rating and 65.Target price of 10 yuan, corresponding to 18.7 times 2019 P / E ratio and 16.2 times the 2020 price-earnings ratio, compared with 21 in the same period last year.8% upside.The current consensus corresponds to 15 of 2019/2020.4 times / 13.3 times price-earnings ratio.  Risk market fluctuations have resulted in lower-than-expected revenue.

Great Wall Motor (601633) November sales review: the structure is king after the first attack

Great Wall Motor (601633) November sales review: the structure is king after the first attack
At least once a month, the low-cost range models withdraw from the company’s November total sales of 11.520,000 vehicles, at least -13.1%; cumulative sales from January to November of 95.430,000 vehicles, +3 per year.8%.Wholesale decreases by 1 each year.There were 730,000 vehicles with double-digit peaks, mainly due to the aging of tires in some low-priced areas, and at the same time, the pipeline was further decompressed.Split by product price range, models below 11 million are reduced by 2 each year.300,000 vehicles, more than 11 million US dollars increased by 0.570,000 vehicles.See the main model below 110,000 yuan, H2, H6 sports / H6 Coupe, 无锡夜网 H4, F5 respectively decreased by 1 compared with the same period last year.19, 0.46, 0.26, 0.460,000, at least -79.3%, -31.0%, -50.6%, -65.3%. The chain was flat and the product structure continued to be upgraded. The company’s sales volume in November was basically flat and slightly increased by 0.1%, but the structure continues to improve.Since September, the company’s proportion of low-priced products has been steadily decreasing. From September to November, Great Wall Motor’s share of models below 11 million was 52.7%, 45.9%, 43.2%, close to the low of nearly two years, second only to January 2018 and May and June 2019.Specific price range: 1) M6 sales in low-end markets below 8 million1.590,000 vehicles, +4 chain.5%; 2) 8-11 million middle and low-end markets (H2, H6 sports / H6 Coupe, H4, F5, Euler, Fengjun 5/7) total sales 3.130,000 vehicles, -16 from the previous month.8%; 3) 11-14 million mid-end market (new H6, F7 / x, VV5) total sales 4.840,000 vehicles, +3 chain.9%; 4) Total sales of more than 12 million in the high-end market (gun series, VV6, VV7, H9, others)710,000 vehicles, +8 chain.9%. The highlights remain, the focus model is in line with the expected sales of 6,259 shells, +24.7%, steadily climbing the third month of listing; WEY series sold 10,450 vehicles, each time -8.2%, +0.8% is expected to turn positive by the end of the year; sales of hard-core off-road H in September exceeded 2000, reaching 2028 units, exceeding +101.6%, +29.3%, in line with our previous expectations, is expected to continue to stay above this level in the future. Stable and excessive, the fourth quarter results will maintain growth. Based on the current product status, we expect M12 sales to be 12 in 2019.10,000 vehicles, -9% a year; 35 sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.10,000 vehicles, at least -7%; 107 sales in early 2019.50,000 vehicles, + 2% a year.This predicts that the fourth quarter of 2019 will return the net profit of the mother to around 15 million US dollars, corresponding to a nominal profit of 6,000 yuan for the bicycle, taking into account the cost accrual, financial contributions and incremental rebates. Earnings forecast and investment rating: Reduce the company’s profit in 2019 to 44.2 million US dollars, maintaining a profit of 65/85 million US dollars in 2020/2021, corresponding to the current expected PE of 18/12/10 times respectively. The decrease in annual results was mainly due to the decrease in wholesale sales in November.Destocking, short-term initial optimization of channel structure, so maintain a “Buy” rating. Risk warning: the macroeconomic growth rate exceeds expectations; the growth of the passenger car market is weak; the sales of new models climb less than expected; the profitability of bicycles rebounds more than expected.

Yanjing Beer (000729) Interim Report 19: 19H1 performance short-term pressure on sub-brands into volume highlights

Yanjing Beer (000729) Interim Report 19: 19H1 performance short-term pressure on sub-brands into volume highlights

I. Overview of the incident The company released its 19-year interim report.

At the core of the report, the company achieved revenue of 64.

62 trillion, +1 a year.

37%, achieving net profit 佛山桑拿网 attributable to mother 5.

12 trillion, +1 a year.


Second, analysis and judgment of Q2 revenue, double-digit profit, sub-brand heavy volume into a bright spot 19H1 company achieved revenue 64.

62 trillion, +1 a year.

37%, equivalent to 30 quarters of revenue in Q2.

1.4 billion a year -2.

63%; 19H1 achieved net profit attributable to mother 5.

12 trillion, +1 a year.

13%, equivalent to Q2 single quarter net profit attributable to mother 4.

54 ppm, +0 for ten years.

twenty two%.

The growth rate of the company’s performance in 19Q2 slowed down compared to the previous quarter. The income side was mainly caused by the rain in Q2, which interfered with the main brand of Yanjing.

In terms of sales, 19H1 achieved sales of 257.

850,000 kiloliters, at least -0.

66%, mainly due to significant sales in 19Q2 (19Q2 sales of 139.

850,000 kiloliters, previously -3.


19H1 Yanjing’s main brand sold 175.

960,000 kiloliters, previously -3.

71%, three sub-brands achieved sales of 62.

160,000 kiloliters, +10 in the past.

88%, the three companies Liquan / Snow Deer / Huiquan achieved positive revenue growth, of which the Liquan brand performed particularly well (19H1 Liquan company revenue +19.

82%, Snow Deer +6.

07%, Huiquan +0.


In terms of ton price, the company’s 19H1 ton price reached 2325 due to the continuous advancement of product structure upgrades and the positive reduction in the expansion rate.

19 yuan / kL, +2 in the past.

03%, the growth rate is between Tsingtao Beer (ten years +5.

42%) and heavy beer (ten years +1).


Increase in gross profit margin + decline in the proportion of taxes and additional revenue promoted a slight increase in net profit. Gross profit margin: The company’s gross profit margin reached 42 in 19H1.

56%, a slight increase of 0 a year.

14ppt. Against the background of the rising prices of glass bottles and barley in the first half of this year, the gross profit margin increased against the trend, mainly due to the continuous optimization of product structure + falling prices of packaging materials such as corrugated paper and aluminum cans + a decrease in growth rate;With the increase in gross profit margin and the decline in the proportion of taxes and additional revenue, the company’s net profit margin in 19H1 reached 8.
80%, a slight increase of 0 a year.
04ppt, of which 19H1 tax and additional revenue accounted for at least -0.

63ppt, mainly due to the increase in the alternative consumption tax rate of the product’s ton price, which resulted in the consumption tax revenue accounting for more than -0.


Regarding the period expense ratio, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio of the company in 19H1 was +0.

45ppt / + 0.

15ppt / + 0.

22ppt / -0.

10ppt, of which the increase in the sales expense ratio was mainly due to the Q2 Winter Olympics sponsorship expenses accrued, which resulted in +0 of advertising expenses and publicity expenses.

21ppt, the increase in the management expense ratio was mainly due to the employee’s salary and revenue accounted for more than +0.


Promote product upgrading and gradually reduce the scale in advantageous markets, and continue to be optimistic about the company’s profitability. The company’s three dominant markets in Beijing, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi have an average market share of more than 75%.it is good.

At the same time, the expected reduction in yield is highly resilient to the weakly profitable beer industry. We estimate that the shift to 3 yields in April 19 will bring about an increase in the company’s yield.

Deeply plowing into advantageous markets to promote product upgrades and expansion cuts, we continue to be optimistic about the improvement of the company’s profitability.

Third, the investment proposal is expected to achieve operating income of 120 companies in 19-21.

24 ppm / 125.

15 ppm / 132.

55 ppm, ten years +6.

0% / 4.

1% / 5.

9%; net profit attributable to listed companies is 2.

67 ppm / 3.

34 ‰ / 4.

10,000 yuan, +48 a year.

6% / 24.

9% / 20.

0%, equivalent to EPS.

09 yuan / 0.

12 yuan / 0.

14 yuan, corresponding to 1 for PB.

35X / 1.

32X / 1.

28 times.

The current overall net settlement of the beer sector is 2.

The company is estimated to be 95 times lower than the industry. Taking into account the deep cultivation of the superior market to promote product upgrades instead of expansion, it is expected that the company’s profit growth will be faster than the industry average in the future.

In summary, maintain the “recommended” level.

4. Risk warning: market competition intensifies beyond expectations, cost growth exceeds expectations, and food safety risks

N China Resources Micro (688396) Company In-Depth Research Report: Power Semiconductor Specialist Zhizhi Special Process Industry Specialization

N China Resources Micro (688396) Company In-Depth Research Report: Power Semiconductor Specialist Zhizhi Special Process Industry Specialization

Red chip science and technology main board market, rooted in semiconductor manufacturing technology, red chip science and technology board listed, high-quality companies return to A shares: China Resources Microelectronics was established in January 2003, with a total of 8 issued shares.

7.9 billion shares, the total share capital of the company after this issuance is 12.

1.6 billion shares (do not consider the impact of the follow-up green shoe mechanism on the total equity).

China Resources Microelectronics has a clear shareholding. The only shareholder before the listing was CRH (Micro), which holds 100% of China Resources Microelectronics. Its actual controller is China Resources.

At present, the company has 2 8-inch wafer production lines, 3 6-inch wafer production lines, 2 packaging test production lines, 1 integrated production line, 3 design companies, domestic enterprises with complete semiconductor industry chain, and special manufacturing processesLeading domestic technology leaders.

The company’s products and solutions adopt the IDM business model. According to our industry chain research, the design and development of power semiconductors and other products need to be closely integrated with the manufacturing process and packaging process. The IDM business model can better integrate internal resource advantages, which is more conducive toBased on the accumulation of technology and formation of product groups, and customized high-efficiency special processes based on customer needs to customize domestic MOSFET leading manufacturers, import substitution space is sufficient for downstream applications, and import substitution space is sufficient: From the perspective of the global competitive landscape, high-end MOSFETs and IGBTs are still importedMainly, data from Infineon’s fiscal year 2019 can be polished, and 35% of its sales to China have become its largest market.

The domestic power semiconductor discrete device industry started relatively late, but benefited from huge terminal consumer demand and the market size has grown rapidly. We believe that domestic terminal manufacturers are undergoing import substitution and related power device manufacturers are expected to usher in opportunities for gold development.

According to statistics from IHSMarkit, the company ranks third in the Chinese MOSFET market in some ways, second only to international companies such as Infineon and ON Semiconductor, and is the largest domestic MOSFET manufacturer in China.

   In the field of IGBT-specific consumer electronics industrial control, companies with obvious technological advantages have accumulated a lot of core technologies with independent intellectual property rights in the field of IGBT devices and manufacturing processes. The patent covers multiple IGBT device structures and process flows, including 600V-6500V multiple voltage platformsCan improve product reliability and product performance, currently has an expanded competitive advantage in the market.

The company’s IGBT devices have a wide range of applications in consumer electronics, industrial control, and new energy. At the same time, they also benefit from domestic alternative accelerators, and have long-term, stable market demand.

  The prospects of SiC and GaN are expected, and the leading advantage of R & D will be increased. SiC can manufacture high-withstand voltage, high-power power electronic devices such as MOSFET, IGBT, SBD, etc., which are used in industries such as smart grids and new energy vehicles.

Yole data shows that the compound annual growth rate of the SiC power component market from 2017 to 2023 is 31%, and it is expected to exceed $ 1.5 billion by 2023. Applications include motor drives, charging infrastructure, electric vehicles, solar photovoltaic, subways, etc.
From the point of view of application, what is different from SiC is that the core application of GaN is power.

Yole data points out that the GaN market size is expected to be about 4 in 2022.

$ 500 million.

Chen Nanxiang, the company’s executive vice chairman, said at the online media conference on the listing of the science and technology board that in the field of third-generation compound semiconductors, based on the long-term design and process precipitation, the company actively lays out third-generation semiconductor materials.GaN power device design, processing and packaging test technology, SiC power device design technology.

At the same time, the company intends to make full use of the advantages of the IDM mode and the technology accumulation in the field of power devices to achieve design and research and process technology research and development of 650V silicon-based GaN devices, SiC JBS devices and SiC MOSFET products.

  Investment recommendations we expect in 2019?
The company’s revenue will be 57 in 2021.

4.5 billion, 69.

6 billion, 83.

52 ppm, a ten-year increase of -8.

39%, 21.

15%, 20%; expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company4.

10,000 yuan, 6.

3.5 billion, 8.

1.6 billion.

In terms of estimation, we compare domestic power semiconductor manufacturers with an average PE of about 40 times compared to 2021 (excluding the valuation of Silan Micro more than 100 times). Given the company’s leading advantage in the MOSFET field 无锡桑拿网 and sufficient future growth space, we give certain estimatesThe premium, for the first time, covered the “Buy” rating.

  There are risks associated with the gradual unrepaired supplementary risks; defects in the semiconductor industry; and technological gaps with international manufacturers.

AVIC Electronics (600372): Leading military wings for avionics system development

AVIC Electronics (600372): Leading military wings for avionics system development

The event company released its 2018 annual report. In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 76.

43 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

8%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 4.

7.9 billion, a decrease of 11 per year.

6%, net profit after deduction to mother 1.

7.4 billion, down 53 before.


Brief Comment 1. The company achieved operating income of 76 in 2018.

43 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

8%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 4.

79 trillion, down 11 a year.

6%, net profit after deduction to mother 1.

7.4 billion, down 53 before.


The company’s total revenue has grown steadily and its net profit has decreased.

The reasons for the decrease in net profit are: 1) The gross profit margin of aviation products in 2018 was 29 due to the increase in the cost of purchasing raw materials for its main business aviation products.

57%, down 4 each year.

61 single companies, the company is expected to improve in 2019; 2) interest expenses in 20183.

32 ppm, an increase of 40 in ten years.

3%, mainly due to the accrued interest expenses of the total 24 trillion convertible bonds issued in December 2017; 3) Asset impairment losses in 20181.

63 ppm, an increase of 82 in ten years.

5%, due to the withdrawal of coins from the subsidiary Baocheng Instrument for bad debt losses.

The company expects to achieve operating income in 2019.

7.0 billion, achieving a net profit of 6.

1.2 billion.

The production and operation conditions are stable and the operating cash flow is sufficient.

Company product sales increased by 8.

8%, production and operation are in good condition.

In general, the company’s production, stable operating conditions, reasonable asset 天津夜网 structure, stable operating cash flow, and revenue growth guarantee the company’s future working capital and payment of convertible bond interest.

Managed airborne companies injected expectations.

The company and the airborne company signed the “Custody Agreement” to host its 14 companies and institutions, which is conducive to strengthening the integration of the airborne sector, accelerating the integration of aircraft and industrial aircraft and electricity, and promoting the professional development of the company’s avionics products and further deepeningThe reform of the system and mechanism has improved the management efficiency of the company and is expected to increase the company’s performance in the future.

2. The company’s initial stock repurchase plan demonstrates confidence and promotes long-term stable 南京夜网论坛 development.

The company disclosed on January 31, 2019 that it intends to use its own funds and self-raised funds to repurchase the company’s shares in a centralized bidding transaction, and the total amount of repurchased shares is not less than 1.

5 trillion and not more than 3 trillion yuan, and the repurchase price does not exceed 18.

50 yuan / share. The repurchased shares will be used for employee equity incentive plans and conversion of convertible bonds.

The company’s stock repurchase plan reflects the company’s confidence in future development, and also reflects that it is believed to gradually surpass the company’s true value, which is conducive to enhancing market confidence and promoting the company’s long-term stable development.

3. At present, there is still a gap between the overall military equipment and the United States, and the construction of equipment urgently needs to be accelerated.

Under the background of external defense demand and internal policy promotion and the urgent need to accelerate the construction of military aircraft equipment, the modernization process of domestic military aviation equipment will continue to accelerate.Before 2020, the second-generation aircraft will be gradually phased out, and the third-generation aircraft will be the main body, and it will be transformed into the fourth-generation aircraft. The third-generation and fourth-generation fighters will successively usher in batch deliveries to varying degrees.

It is estimated that the space for the military aircraft market in the next ten years will be USD 200 billion, and the average annual market space for avionics will exceed USD 5 billion.

4. The company is currently the leading domestic avionics system company. The military and civil aviation markets are broad, and policy support has helped the development of airborne system technology; hosting airborne companies and stock repurchase injections are expected to enhance market confidence and help the company’s long-term stable development.

We are optimistic about the company’s future development prospects and predict that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 2021 will be 6 respectively.

5.4 billion, 7.

8 million yuan, 7.

79 ppm, an increase of 36 per year.

42%, 8.

22%, 10.

08%, the corresponding 18 to 20 years of EPS are 0.

37, 0.

40, 0.

44 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE of 45.

06, 41.

64, 37.

82 times, give a buy rating.

Risk warnings 1. The development of military aircraft is less than expected; 2. The development of civilian models such as C919 is less than expected; 3. The development of airborne companies is less than expected.

SAIC Group (600104): Leader in the industry is still strong in the dark

SAIC Group (600104): Leader in the industry is still strong in the dark

Key points of the report Description SAIC Group released the 2018 annual report and achieved operating revenue of 9021.

900 million, an annual increase of 3.

62%, the profit attributable to the parent company achieved 360.

100 million, an annual increase of 4.

65%, the profit of the parent company after deduction is 324.

1 billion, a ten-year average of 1.


Comment on the event In the fourth quarter, the industry’s pressured promotions increased, 合肥夜网 and SAIC’s profitability remained stable.

Industry sales fell by 15 in the fourth quarter of 2018.

0%, SAIC’s sales increased by only 9.

7%, the market share has continued to increase.

The company’s operating income for the fourth quarter of 2018 was 2,274.

5 billion, 13 from the previous decade.

4%, the profit attributable to the parent company is 83.

400 million, for a total of 14.

7%, which is basically equivalent to income.

Affected by the industry’s price competition in the fourth quarter, its profitability remained stable, showing its leading attributes.

The overall stability is stable, and SAIC Volkswagen performs better.

Investment income from joint ventures was 259.

2 billion, New Year’s Eve 8.

4%, the corresponding investment income of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM is 140.

100 million and 上海夜网论坛 78.

100 million, an increase of 4 each year.

8% and 1.


SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM sales increased by 0, respectively.

1% and formaldehyde 1.

At 5%, both the manufacturing-end Volkswagen and GM’s bicycle profits increased slightly. GM Beisheng and Dongyue’s Q4 destocking performance is expected to improve.

R & D expenses increased, and the gradual expansion of independent brands still narrowed.

SAIC passenger car sales reached 70.

20,000 vehicles, a sharp increase of 34 against the market.

5%, and achieved 9 sales of new energy vehicles.

70,000 units, an increase of 119 in ten years.


The overall feasibility of autonomy in 201836.

500 million, a reduction of 8 compared with 2017.

0 billion, R & D expenses are 73.

300 million, an increase of 8 from 2017.900 million, independent brands still realized loss reduction.

In 2019, we will welcome the RX5 replacement and a number of new energy models, which are expected to continue high growth.

SAIC Finance increased loan placements, and the total cash inflow from operations and investments remained healthy.

Cash flow from operating activities was 89.

800 million, a year-on-year decrease of 153.

With a budget of USD 300 million, the company increased the issuance of financial products of SAIC Finance, drew less customer deposits during the period, and other current assets increased by 269 from the beginning of the period.

8 billion.

At the same time, changing the structure of SAIC’s financial and financial assets allocation, the net cash flow from investment activities increased by 207 compared with the same period in 2017.

600 million, reaching 98.


The model cycle is leading the industry, overseas and new energy continue to exert force, and the leader is still expected to remain stable.

Volkswagen, GM SUV new model investment, independent new energy and overseas efforts, the company’s target sales in 2019 of 7.1 million vehicles, an increase of 0 over the same period.

6%, maintaining steady growth.

The dividend payout ratio for 2018 is 40.

9%, corresponding to an index rate of 4.

7%, providing a margin of safety.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2020 is expected to be 3 respectively.



75 yuan, corresponding to PE is 8.




Risk Warning: 1.

Industry sales continued to decline; 2.

The profits of new energy vehicles dropped significantly.

Hengyi Petrochemical (000703): 1H19 results in line with expectations Brunei project put into production is worth looking forward to

Hengyi Petrochemical (000703): 1H19 results in line with expectations Brunei project put into production is worth looking forward to

Performance review Maintaining outperforming industry 1H19 results in line with our expectations of the company’s 1H19 results: revenue 417.

3 ‰, at least -3.

55%; net profit attributable to mother 12.

8 ‰, +2 for ten years.

94%, corresponding profit 0.

45 yuan, in line with expectations.

  The company’s gross profit margin increased by 1.

29ppt to 5.

26%, mainly due to the substantial decrease in the company’s trade income.

In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio increased by 0.

07ppt to 0.

46%, the management expense rate + research and development expense rate increased by 0.

65ppt to 1.

23% (mainly due to the increase in R & D investment), 苏州桑拿网 and financial expenses increased by 0.

06ppt to 0.


  The development trend is integrated and balanced development, extension and endogenous expansion of polyester filament production. The refining and chemical project 2H is expected to be put into production.

Hengyi’s existing PTA equity capacity is replaced by 622. The ownership equity capacity is 540 lengths (475 filaments), and the integration is relatively balanced.

The company merged to rapidly increase the production capacity of filament through acquisition. At present, there is only 125 tons of capacity under construction.

At the same time, the company’s Brunei refining and chemical project has been trial-produced and Q4 is officially put into production. Considering the development advantages and the advantages of overseas sales of refined oil products, we expect the refining and chemical project to significantly increase the company’s performance.

  The long-term trend of PX earnings remains unchanged.

The short-term polyester industry chain companies are developing upstream. According to the forecast of China Fiber Network, the industry’s new 1220 throughput in 2019 will reach the 2620 target, which is + 87% year-on-year, and the 1310 target will gradually increase by 2020.

Taking into account the 5-10% growth rate of downstream polyester, the expansion of PX production is much higher than this. We expect the profit forecast of the PX industry to be expected, and the prosperity will decline.

The price difference of PX in 2018Q4-2019Q2 was 4939/3714/2656 yuan / ton, which further increased to 1901 yuan / ton in July, and the price gap narrowed.

  PTA + polyester filament can bring continuous improvement in profits.

The change in the supply-demand pattern of the PX-PTA-polyester filament industry chain from 2019 to 2022 is conducive to the transfer of industrial chain profits to PTA + polyester filament.

The increase in supply of the polyester industry is lower than that of the PTA and PX industries, and the industry concentration trend has increased.

With the oil price bottoming out in 2019Q1, the polyester POY spreads in 2018Q4-2019Q2 were respectively 587/298/618 yuan / ton.

PTA production capacity is mainly concentrated in 2020 and beyond. The PTA spread in 2018Q4-2019Q2 is -93/656/929 yuan / ton, and we expect 2H19PTA earnings to remain high.

  Earnings forecast and project progress forecast of refining and chemical projects, we lowered net profit for 2019/2020 by 18% / 3% to 32.


1.6 billion.

The current consensus is 10/2019/2020.


7 times price-earnings ratio.

  We maintain our Outperform rating, but we have lowered our target price by 33 due to the increase in share capital and downward adjustment of the industry’s estimated hub.

3% to 14.

00 yuan, corresponding to 12 times the 2019 P / E ratio and 8 times the 2020 P / E ratio, which is 21 compared with the current progress.5% upside.

  Risk crude oil prices fluctuated sharply, downstream demand was weak, and debt levels were high.

Biyin Lefen (002832): Differential advantage highlights continued high growth

Biyin Lefen (002832): Differential advantage highlights continued high growth

Affected by rapid income growth and preferential tax rates for emerging companies, the company’s 2019H1 revenue / net profit increased by 25% / 42% to 8 respectively.

4.6 billion 苏州桑拿网 / 1.

7.4 billion.

We believe that the long-term sustained growth of mid-to-high-end brands is the same-store organic growth based on strong product strength.

By cooperating with global high-quality fabric suppliers and designers at home and abroad, the company makes full use of strong product power and perfect VIP service capabilities, and the same store growth strength gradually integrates its peers in a weak urban environment. It is expected that this year will still maintain a double-digitSame store growth level; At the same time, combined with optimization of store area and location expansion and new brand incremental contributions, it is expected that this year ‘s external slowdown contribution will contribute double-digit growth, and revenue and net profit will increase by nearly 30% and 40%, respectively.

The existing 南京夜网 company has a market value of 7.8 billion, corresponding to 19PE19X / 20PE15X, and maintains the “Highly Recommended-A” rating.

In 19H1, the income side continued to grow strongly, with favorable yields and improved profit elasticity.

Driven by channel expansion and endogenous growth in the same store, the company’s 19H1 revenue increased by 25.

15% to 8.

46 trillion yuan, with operating profit growing 21 per year.

3% to 2.

02 trillion, affected by preferential income ratio, net profit increases by 42 every year.

01% to 1.

$ 7.4 billion in profits.

56 yuan.

On a quarterly basis, 19Q2 revenue grew 22 per year.

45% to 3.

74 trillion US dollars, but the increase in expenses has led to a 4% decline in operating profit.

22% to 50.78 million yuan, net profit increased due to preferential income tax rates.

33% to 44 million yuan.

Shandong Gold (600547): Gold upward cycle highlights the long-term allocation value of leading companies

Shandong Gold (600547): Gold upward cycle highlights the long-term allocation value of leading companies

Event description Comex gold price has gradually increased since the beginning of 20198.

4% to 1394.

$ 1 per ounce.

Event Comment Gold price entered a large-cycle upward channel: Gold price is highly negatively correlated with the global real interest rate environment, and is a reflection of the global economic cycle shift on commodity prices.

As the most currency-like commodity, gold is actually a non-interest-bearing (value-preserving) dollar-like asset. The fuse of this gold’s upward cycle is that the Fed may return to the interest rate reduction channel, and kick off the prelude to loose global liquidity.

The global economy is accelerating its growth. 都市夜网 Under the loose liquidity environment, gold often welcomes growth.

Back in history, whether in 1984, 1989, or 2001, after 2007, the global economy, the locomotive of the United States, fell sharply, gradually declined, and the average price of gold showed an upward trend.

The increase in the price of gold at the end of the economic cycle is mainly due to the fact that under the loose global liquidity environment, the real interest rate center has fallen.

Specifically, through the accelerated economic growth of the United States, the Federal Reserve often enters the cycle of rate cuts; the real interest rate center of the United States falls accordingly, which drives up the price of gold.

The leader in the pure gold industry and adheres to the international development strategy: the company adheres to the resource-first business philosophy and is an industry leader with gold as its main business.

(1) In terms of reserves, the company has 987 tons of gold equity resources and 350 tons of equity reserves.

Among them, the domestic mining gold equity resources amounted to 837.

7 tons, equity reserves of 253 tons, of which the four main domestic mines (Sanshandao Gold Mine, Jiaojia Gold Mine, Xincheng Gold Mine, Linglong Gold Mine) are the foundation of the company’s stable development; the overseas Belladro Mine has 149 gold equity resources.

3 tons, 97 tons of equity reserves, will be the main force for future output growth; (2) In terms of output, the company’s mineral gold output has steadily increased, and the company’s mineral gold output in 2018 was 39.

32 tons (domestic 30.

35 tons + foreign 8.

97 tons), an annual increase of 9.

6%; we expect that the output of mineral gold in the first half of 2019 is expected to be basically flat, stable at about 20 tons.

The upward cycle of gold shows the long-term allocation value of the leader, and the company’s performance is actively expected: (1) The company, as the leader of pure gold, has the highest output position, and can have the largest performance flexibility in the upward cycle of the gold price; (2) Group’s high-quality resourcesIt is the company’s subsequent savings guarantee. Shandong Gold Group has a large number of high-quality gold resources in the early stages of development, and the company has the right to purchase related resources from the group. (3) The international merger and acquisition strategy is conducive to the company’s development from the leader of the Chinese gold industry.Global gold industry giant.

In summary, in the gold upward cycle, the company allocates value for a long time.

Based on this, we expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

85, 1.

08 and 1.

25 yuan, corresponding PE is 46X, 36X and 31X.

Risk Warning: 1.

The company’s gold output was less than expected; 2.

The global macroeconomic recovery is strong, and the price of gold has fallen sharply.

Interview: Accelerating Innovation and Opening, Hedging the Impact of the Epidemic on the Supply Chain-Interview with Fu Xiaolan, Director of Technology and Management Development Research Center, Oxford University

Interview: Accelerating Innovation and Opening, Hedging the Impact of the Epidemic on the Supply Chain-Interview with Fu Xiaolan, Director of Technology and Management Development Research Center, Oxford University
Original title: Interview: Accelerating Innovation and Opening, Hedging the Impact of the Epidemic on the Supply Chain-Interview with Fu Xiaolan, Director of the Technology and Management Development Research Center of Oxford University, Xinhua News Agency, London, February 22nd, Interview: Accelerating Innovation and Opening Up, Hedge Outbreak on the Supply ChainAnd director of the Management Development Research Center Fu Xiaolan Xinhua News Agency reporter Yu Jiaxin Gu Zhenqiu Director of the University of Oxford Technology and Management Development Research Center Fu Xiaolan said in a recent interview with Xinhua News Agency reporters that the new crown pneumonia epidemic will have some impact on the global value chain, but objectivelyIt also brings some opportunities for 杭州桑拿 China to improve its position in the global value chain.  Fu Xiaolan said that affected by the epidemic, the suspension of production and production of some enterprises and the restrictions on personnel movements adopted by some countries and regions have indeed affected the global operations of some multinational enterprises and may be replaced by upstream and downstream manufacturing industries through global value chains.A game.However, she pointed out that the division of global value chains has been changing, driven by factors such as the development of new technological revolutions and the pursuit of manufacturing returns in Europe and the United States.For example, in the global value chain, China has gradually shifted from labor-intensive industries to the production of important intermediate products and the assembly of high-tech manufactured products.  At present, China is orderly promoting resumption of work and production.Fu Xiaolan commented that this will not only help China’s stable economic growth, ensure the continuity of people’s lives and China’s foreign economic and trade cooperation, but also have important implications for ensuring the normal operation of local and global supply chains and the stability of international markets.  The estimated supply chain of the epidemic has some impact, but at the same time there are some opportunities.  ”The epidemic objectively assisted in promoting the service-oriented development of China’s manufacturing industry.Fu Xiaolan analyzed that after the outbreak, some enterprises focusing on traditional management. The industrial Internet system based on digitalization, networking, and intelligence can make manufacturing operations more flexible, reduce costs, and be more effective in responding to emergencies.  She believes that after the outbreak, industrial Internet, artificial intelligence, industrial and civilian robots, 5G-related technology applications, and medical and health industries may achieve new breakthroughs.  Fu Xiaolan said that the epidemic will gradually and objectively realize the value chain upgrade and innovation transformation, and enhance China’s right to speak in the global value chain reorganization.In addition, we should strengthen the Asian community’s destiny community, and use the “Belt and Road” as a link to promote Asia-Europe industrial chain cooperation.  How can foreign countries be “introduced” and “retained”?Fu Xiaolan believes that in the short term, it is necessary to consider the resumption of production and production of the enterprise, but in the long run, it is necessary to establish a first-class business environment with internationalization, rule of law, and convenience, and actively participate in global institutional competition, thereby enhancing the company’s confidence in continued investment.