Great Wall Motor (601633) November sales review: the structure is king after the first attack

Great Wall Motor (601633) November sales review: the structure is king after the first attack
At least once a month, the low-cost range models withdraw from the company’s November total sales of 11.520,000 vehicles, at least -13.1%; cumulative sales from January to November of 95.430,000 vehicles, +3 per year.8%.Wholesale decreases by 1 each year.There were 730,000 vehicles with double-digit peaks, mainly due to the aging of tires in some low-priced areas, and at the same time, the pipeline was further decompressed.Split by product price range, models below 11 million are reduced by 2 each year.300,000 vehicles, more than 11 million US dollars increased by 0.570,000 vehicles.See the main model below 110,000 yuan, H2, H6 sports / H6 Coupe, 无锡夜网 H4, F5 respectively decreased by 1 compared with the same period last year.19, 0.46, 0.26, 0.460,000, at least -79.3%, -31.0%, -50.6%, -65.3%. The chain was flat and the product structure continued to be upgraded. The company’s sales volume in November was basically flat and slightly increased by 0.1%, but the structure continues to improve.Since September, the company’s proportion of low-priced products has been steadily decreasing. From September to November, Great Wall Motor’s share of models below 11 million was 52.7%, 45.9%, 43.2%, close to the low of nearly two years, second only to January 2018 and May and June 2019.Specific price range: 1) M6 sales in low-end markets below 8 million1.590,000 vehicles, +4 chain.5%; 2) 8-11 million middle and low-end markets (H2, H6 sports / H6 Coupe, H4, F5, Euler, Fengjun 5/7) total sales 3.130,000 vehicles, -16 from the previous month.8%; 3) 11-14 million mid-end market (new H6, F7 / x, VV5) total sales 4.840,000 vehicles, +3 chain.9%; 4) Total sales of more than 12 million in the high-end market (gun series, VV6, VV7, H9, others)710,000 vehicles, +8 chain.9%. The highlights remain, the focus model is in line with the expected sales of 6,259 shells, +24.7%, steadily climbing the third month of listing; WEY series sold 10,450 vehicles, each time -8.2%, +0.8% is expected to turn positive by the end of the year; sales of hard-core off-road H in September exceeded 2000, reaching 2028 units, exceeding +101.6%, +29.3%, in line with our previous expectations, is expected to continue to stay above this level in the future. Stable and excessive, the fourth quarter results will maintain growth. Based on the current product status, we expect M12 sales to be 12 in 2019.10,000 vehicles, -9% a year; 35 sales in the fourth quarter of 2019.10,000 vehicles, at least -7%; 107 sales in early 2019.50,000 vehicles, + 2% a year.This predicts that the fourth quarter of 2019 will return the net profit of the mother to around 15 million US dollars, corresponding to a nominal profit of 6,000 yuan for the bicycle, taking into account the cost accrual, financial contributions and incremental rebates. Earnings forecast and investment rating: Reduce the company’s profit in 2019 to 44.2 million US dollars, maintaining a profit of 65/85 million US dollars in 2020/2021, corresponding to the current expected PE of 18/12/10 times respectively. The decrease in annual results was mainly due to the decrease in wholesale sales in November.Destocking, short-term initial optimization of channel structure, so maintain a “Buy” rating. Risk warning: the macroeconomic growth rate exceeds expectations; the growth of the passenger car market is weak; the sales of new models climb less than expected; the profitability of bicycles rebounds more than expected.